What it is
The Club Churn Prediction feature is an AI-powered early warning system that scores existing club members on their likelihood to cancel. Commerce7 analyzes behavioral patterns across thousands of memberships, factoring in order history, email engagement, and reservation activity, to assign each membership a churn risk tier.
Why we built it
Losing a club member is far more costly than acquiring one. Churn Prediction gives wineries visibility into risk before a cancellation happens, so the team can step in with a personal outreach, a special offer, or a targeted campaign while there is still time to act.
Wineries can act before a member cancels rather than trying to win them back after, protecting revenue that would otherwise walk out the door.
Targeted outreach to at-risk members means your retention efforts are focused where they actually matter, not blasted to your entire club list.
The prediction accuracy rate is currently at 74% and continues to improve as we refine the model and feed in additional data.
How it Works
- Score: Each club member has a Churn Prediction score calculated based on recent activity (or lack thereof) such as orders, reservations, and email interactions.
- Tier: Based on the score, a tier is a assigned to the Club Membership of Low, Medium, High, or Very High.
- Dynamic calculation: The score will be recalculated if a customer has had no activity for the past 30 days.
Using the Prediction
In the tasting room:
- If a customer has a Churn Prediction that’s High or Very High, a flag will appear on the Club Membership and Customer record prompting staff to take action to save the member
Build marketing campaigns to target at-risk members:
- Go to Settings > Tags > Add Club Membership Tag and select a type of Dynamic
- Under Conditions, select Churn Prediction, is equal to, 'High' or 'Very High'
- Now that you have your list, go to Marketing > Campaigns
- Click Add Campaign, and select the template for Wine Club Churn
- Customize the content to remind members of their benefits
- For a more personal connection, call club members directly to check in, remind them of their benefits, and ask if there is anything you can do to enhance their club experience.
Reporting & Exports
Churn Prediction data is available in the following reporting:
-
- WinePulse club membership reports
- Club > Club Memberships > Actions > Export Club Memberships
- Queries (condition of 'Churn Prediction')
- Dynamic Tags (condition of 'Churn Prediction')